The Signal · The live engine
Live signals.
Every call the engine fires, across four time horizons. Continuously updated. Every signal logged at issuance — entry, target, stop, and conviction, before the move.
Signal
Intraday
09:34 EST · live
SPY S&P 500 ETF
Long
88/100 conviction
Entry582.40
Target585.20
Stop581.10
By16:00 EST
Dealer gamma flips positive above 5,920 SPX into Friday's expiry. Eleven independent reads, three flow desks aligned, breadth thrust confirmed. Tight stop at the prior pivot.
Signal
Intraday
10:08 EST · live
NG Natural Gas
Short
81/100 conviction
Entry2.144
Target2.085
Stop2.180
ByEOD
EIA storage report at 10:30 prints higher-than-expected on the consensus seven-day. Net flow positioning skewed long into the print; the unwind is the trade.
Signal
Swing
30 Apr · 06:30 EST
XAU Gold spot
Long
96/100 conviction
Entry3,050–3,065
Target3,150
Stop3,010
Horizon2 wks
Five highest-rated reads converged on continuation above $3,050. Real yields rolling, dollar softening, central-bank bid persistent. Pattern matches eleven historical analogues.
Signal
Swing
28 Apr · 09:42 EST
SPX S&P 500
Long
94/100 conviction
Entry5,720
Target5,900
Stop5,640
Horizon5–10d
Nine analogues — VIX collapse off elevated base, breadth thrust, dealer gamma flipping positive. Light positioning into a soft-CPI window. Setup is unmistakable.
Signal
Swing
23 Apr · 11:14 EST
SMH Semiconductor ETF
Short
87/100 conviction
Entry388.40
Target368.00
Stop398.00
Horizon7d
Cautious-to-bullish ratio across our covered semis network crossed threshold for the first time since June. Earnings risk into NVDA. Three independent flow reads converged.
Signal
Positional
14 Apr · 10:00 EST
DXY Dollar Index
Short
91/100 conviction
Entry105.40
Target101.20
Stop106.80
Horizon6–8 wks
Cycle topping pattern. Real-yield differential against G10 narrowing for nine consecutive weeks. The 2017 and 2020 analogues both produced 6–8% drawdowns from this exact configuration; we expect the same shape now. Position-sizing reflects high-conviction trend trade.
Signal
Positional
02 Apr · 14:30 EST
UST10Y 10-Year Yield
Lower
86/100 conviction
Entry4.42%
Target4.10%
Stop4.56%
Horizon4–6 wks
Disinflation re-accelerating across our covered prints. Dovish read across central-bank communications at the 64th percentile, the highest since the Q3 2024 turn. Two-cuts-by-September consistent with our network.
Thematic call
Thematic
12 Apr · open
XAU Gold, multi-asset frame
Long
93/100 conviction · regime-aligned
We are positioned for a regime in which gold leads. Real yields softening, dollar topping pattern intact, central-bank accumulation persistent across the network we cover, and risk-asset froth tempting reallocation. The setup that historically precedes durable gold rallies is in place across three independent framings: real rates, dollar reserve dynamics, physical demand from Asia. Each swing-tier signal we fire on XAU sits inside this thematic.
Frame entry2,920
12-mo target3,400
Invalidation2,840
Active swings3
Horizon
All
Intraday
Swing
Positional
Thematic
Status
All
Open
Hit
Stopped
Conviction
All
90+
80–89
70–79
Receipt
Swing
28 Apr → 30 Apr · 2 days · hit target
SPX S&P 500
+3.15%Hit target
Entry5,720
Exit5,900
Held2 days
Conv. at issue94
Receipt
Swing
23 Apr → 28 Apr · 5 days · hit target
SMH Semiconductor ETF
+5.25%Hit target
Entry388.40
Exit368.00
Held5 days
Conv. at issue87
Receipt
Swing
16 Apr → 19 Apr · 3 days · stopped
EUR/USD Euro-Dollar
−0.62%Stopped out
Entry1.1080
Exit1.1140
Held3 days
Conv. at issue76
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